Leon vs Toluca prediction and pre-match statistics, Liga MX, Apertura

Pre-match analysisProbabilities from both teams' history and a goal model, value in the odds, all statistics and the competition context in one place.

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Liga MX, Apertura

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Leon

25.10.2026

00:00

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Toluca

		MP	W	D	L	G	Pts
4.	Toluca	13	6	4	3	28:18	22
5.	Leon	13	6	3	4	20:17	21

0'15'30'45'60'75'90'

Minute

Matches?

Venue?

Probability?

Expected goals (model)1.58 : 1.58

History42%17%42%

Model38%24%38%

Days of rest: 3.8Matches in 14 days: 2Next match: 02.11.26

Days of rest: 2.9Matches in 14 days: 2Next match: 01.11.26

Key probabilities?

Leon40%History 42%Model 38%

Draw20%History 17%Model 24%

Toluca40%History 42%Model 38%

Over 1.579%History 75%Model 82%

Over 2.556%History 50%Model 61%

Over 3.536%History 33%Model 39%

Both teams to score57%History 50%Model 63%

1st half Over 0.561%History 58%Model 63%

Corners Over 9.553%History 50%Model 56%

Cards Over 3.575%History 75%Model –

History = share of matches of both teams in the selected view, averaged. Model = Poisson model from goals scored and conceded by both teams.

Liga MX, Apertura 2026 in numbers

Full table and statistics ›

Matches played115/153

Goals per match3.01

Home wins38%

Draws26%

Away wins36%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Both teams scored60%

Corner kicks11.2

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Liga MX, Apertura 2026 in numbers

Leon vs Toluca, Liga MX, Apertura

Key probabilities?