Naval vs Castro prediction and pre-match statistics, Tercera Federación, Group 3

Pre-match analysisProbabilities from both teams' history and a goal model, value in the odds, all statistics and the competition context in one place.

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Tercera Federación, Group 3

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Naval

25.10.2026

15:30

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Castro

		MP	W	D	L	G	Pts
10.	Castro	7	2	2	3	9:10	8
18.	Naval	6	0	2	4	6:15	2

0'15'30'45'60'75'90'

Minute

Matches?

Venue?

Probability?

Naval: Little data · matches: 3
Castro: Little data · matches: 3

Expected goals (model)1.33 : 2.17

History17%50%33%

Model23%20%56%

Days of rest: 7Matches in 14 days: 1Next match: 01.11.26

Days of rest: 8Matches in 14 days: 1Next match: 01.11.26

Key probabilities?

Naval20%History 17%Model 23%

Draw35%History 50%Model 20%

Castro45%History 33%Model 56%

Over 1.585%History 83%Model 86%

Over 2.576%History 83%Model 68%

Over 3.557%History 67%Model 46%

Both teams to score58%History 50%Model 65%

1st half Over 0.562%History 67%Model 56%

Corners Over 9.5–History –Model –

Cards Over 3.5–History –Model –

History = share of matches of both teams in the selected view, averaged. Model = Poisson model from goals scored and conceded by both teams.

Tercera Federación, Group 3 26/27 in numbers

Full table and statistics ›

Matches played63/306

Goals per match2.68

Home wins40%

Draws25%

Away wins35%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Both teams scored44%

1st half goals per match1.13

Key probabilities?

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Tercera Federación, Group 3 26/27 in numbers

Naval vs Castro, Tercera Federación, Group 3

Key probabilities?